Rate Quote Flyer

Our latest flyer falls into the general educational category. As delivering an honest and applicable rate quote is ever more difficult, yet no less in demand by consumers, it’s critical to be able to quickly educate our prospects so they are not falsely lured by the many misleading advertisements that still exist.

This flyer should go a long way to quickly and easily convey the real story and allow borrowers to be properly inclined to provide the information essential to providing accurate estimates.

You may treat yourself to a download of the generic version shown or subscribe now and receive a customized version along with all of the other elements in our subscription package.

August 2, 2009  Tags: , , , , , , ,   Posted in: General  No Comments

Inflation or Fire Drill?

We’ve just witnessed either a massive, pre-emptive, wholesale sentiment shift in the bond and MBS markets or one heck of a dress rehearsal.

Like the old EF Hutton commercial, when Bill Gross speaks, the markets listen. To those that missed this, Bill really detonated the destruction by suggesting that the US of A could lose its AAA debt status. It was all downhill from there.

Inflation at its core IS a monetary event and when the supply is increased, it is inflation but for all practical purposes, is it really? For in reality, it ultimately depends on the environment. 

Even a limp balloon becomes full in a vacuum but let the atmosphere back in and it’s still just another shriveled piece of rubber. Alternatively, put that balloon in a pressure vessel and you’ll realize that it’ll take a lot more air than usual to inflate it. 

By all accounts, we’ve seen the abyss or at least teetered on the edge. It’s only by way of massive stimulus (and plenty of hot air) that we’ve avoided the plunge. Have we now gone too far and to the point that a deflationary environment and Armageddon are just soon to be forgotten hitchhikers in the rear view mirror? Does it really happen that quickly?

Don’t get me wrong please, those that know me understand that I’m only a couple T-bones short of pure bred perma-bull, but I also bear the scars of the branding iron. I’ve learned my lessons by being there and though I’d love nothing more than to see an end to our current crisis, I also feel the foundation is not yet cured. Low rates, while artificially colored and flavored, were just beginning to have the intended effect. We’ve only just begun to grill that burger and there’s a lot of pink left on the flip side.

Maybe I’m just an idealist and would like to see the nation’s homeowners all locked in at 4.5%, maybe I just like helping people achieve that or maybe I’ve studied the past well enough to know that the likelihood of significant inflation occurring immediately post recession or unless hindsight proves differently, still in the midst of one, would be a phenomenon by classical definition. 

Click to open larger image

Click to open larger image

 
Looking at the chart above, we can see that inflation (orange field) is nowhere to be seen, in fact, we’ve been in a deflationary environment and unemployment (red line) has propelled its way close to double digits. Absent the skew of the birth death ratio adding rather than subtracting jobs and the real rate is even worse. Each instance of recession (grey verticals) has seen inflation and thus interest rates continue to abate, often for a year or more after the end.

In simple terms, this is not the classical environment during which rates should rise. 

So what gives? Well if you’re old enough to remember, think Heinz 57 and Carly Simon.

Markets will move in anticipation of current fundamentals and policy leading to the most popular collectively expected results.  In other words, if we print more money, it’s worth less and investors or lenders demand higher yield.

Head Fake or Pipeline Cleansing Pause?

I’m still more bullish on housing than I am on stocks and the “V” shaped equities recovery we’ve seen can still become a “W.” If that happens, then we may very well see a renewed flight to safety,  lower bond yields, the continuance if not the further expansion of the Treasury MBS purchase program and don’t say it too loudly - lower mortgage rates.

Are these necessary for ultimate recovery, NO. Would they help further the nascent stabilization we’ve begun to witness with sometimes deeply discounted homes going to truly qualified buyers, YES. Would they help enhance the needed confidence for the shell shocked or side-liner’s urge to get back in the game, YES. Would they provide a continued enhanced family cash flow so that dollars currently servicing debt could be freed to fuel saving, discretionary spending and investment, YES. Would the lower interest rates actually help the government by increasing the taxes paid by homeowners but doing so in a way that benefits debtors directly by still lowering overall outlay, YES. Would they further benefit the government by simply lowering the cost of financing the national debt, YES.

Regardless of what would be nice, if what we’ve experienced is truly collective expectation acting as a barometer of coming economic growth, then let it rain. However, if all of this is the negative consequence of too much stimulus and not enough sizzle then let’s hope that recipe can be tweaked in a way that better enhances and defines the escape plan, brings strength back to the dollar and provides for rates more truly in line with realistic expectations for forward growth. For with sustained rates at a level that allows everyone eligible to lock in durable affordability, we’ll have truly created an environment that will foster a balanced and healthy housing market.

June 8, 2009  Tags: , , , , ,   Posted in: General  No Comments

The Mortgage Revolution

The revolution is coming. The brain child of Mark Green from Top of Mind Networks, this event is gearing up to be “the” gathering of like minded, ethical and ready to learn ever more type loan officers from around the country.

A grass roots event by the industry and for the industry. Speakers will not be paid and will not be pitching product from the stage, admission will be inexpensive and all proceeds above and beyond costs will be donated to charity. The accounting for this event will be visible to all and maintained on the web site (coming soon) at: www.mortgagerevolution.org

Enlist now, come join us, learn, network, do the right thing for charity and blow off a little steam.

More info at the Mortgage Chili Blog

Or register on the interest list

On Twitter

On Facebook

To download a high quality Quicktime Video, click here: Download The Mortgage Revolution Video To Check out the video on You Tube, click here: The Mortgage Revolution on YouTube

May 31, 2009  Tags: , , , , , , ,   Posted in: General  No Comments

Chart Series Videos - Interest Rates, Price History & The States

Click the image to view a sample

Click the image to view a sample

Without any fanfare, we’ve been quietly building out and testing our new personalized video player. This is the answer to many things including:

  • I like the idea of educational video marketing but don’t know where to start nor have the time
  • My referral partners need some coaching on the Home Economics Charts data
  • I’m busy and need to work more efficiently
  • I need a way to address common questions that’s available even when I’m not
  • I need something unique to enhance the value of my web site or blog
  • I understand the power of viral marketing but don’t have the resources to do anything about it
  • I like the idea of having a clear, concise and infinitely repeatable message to avoid misunderstandings
  • My budget is limited, yet I need to know that new educational/marketing content will be created regularly
  • Etc., etc.

We’ve not yet posted this new video player as an available item other than in our new subscriber program. As well, we want to be sure that we have added at least a sufficient number of relevant videos for your clients and referral partners to benefit from before we formally introduce it.

 

Following, are three of the latest additions and we’ll be continually adding more in the weeks and months to come:

http://www.homeeconomicschart.com/videoplayer/emailViewer.php?usr=test&select_menu=INTEREST_RATES

http://www.homeeconomicschart.com/videoplayer/emailViewer.php?usr=test&select_menu=PRICE_HISTORY

http://www.homeeconomicschart.com/videoplayer/emailViewer.php?usr=test&select_menu=THE_STATES

This system allows you to send email templates with an invitation to watch the video and the “player” allows a viewer to forward the video (thus the viral element), respond directly to you via email, launch the main video player where a main menu of available videos is available, etc.

Check it out, let us know what you think and if you have any questions or would like to have one personalized for you, give us a ring at 866-953-5550 or email info@estateofmindinc.com

Thanks.

May 10, 2009  Tags: , , , , , , , , ,   Posted in: General  One Comment

Real Estate Stats by Metro Area (MSA)

Not only do we think it’s a good idea, many of you do too. There are a few questions we are asked regularly and something along the lines of  ”do you have any charts for my local market” is right up there at the top of the list. Accordingly, we are now producing personalized PDF’s for your Metro Area/MSA. Users of our State Charts will recognize many of the features on these including yearly appreciation and trend/performance per the Housing Price Index. Yet here, we go a little deeper too. On the second page, we are also including recent year and even quarterly data on median sale prices. Click here to download a sample.

We haven’t forgotten the supporting demographics and have also included local unemployment stats and highlighted state population patterns. The last graph really sums it all up by showing in detail, the performance over the last quarter, last year and most importantly, the growth over the last 5 and 10 years. This visually drives home the fact that despite short term volatility or price drops, values in many if not most areas have grown handsomely over the last 5 years and doubled over the last 10. Since these latter two time frames are in line with typical ownership periods, they are much more important for buyers/owners. No one likes it when their home price falls yet, there are only two prices that matter the most and those are what you pay and what you sell for.

Helping and showing those on the fence or the sidelines recognize that price dips are much more rare than appreciation in value can help them also recognize that buying low and holding on does more for building long term wealth than just about anything else.

As these are brand new, they are not yet posted on our site individually but are a special bonus available now for our current and new subscribers. If you’d like more information, click here- subscribe , call at 866-953-5550 or email info@estateofmindinc.com

May 10, 2009  Tags: , , , , , , , ,   Posted in: General  No Comments

The Real Estate Cycle

In some areas, this is a clearly evident process, in others, it’s barely noticeable.

We’ve created a new visual representation of this cycle and the thinking or mindset of both sellers and buyers that will often accompany it. Have a look by clicking here.

As there are of course many factors that influence or dictate the timing of purchases, a buyer or seller will not always be able to wait for the most opportune climate. As well, it wouldn’t always be prudent as areas or times that lack a clear cycle can see values progress or decline for other reasons. Still, recognizing the market and applicable phase for what it is can go a long way to educating your clients and to help them strike the best possible deal at the time that’s right for them.

March 31, 2009  Tags: , , , ,   Posted in: General  2 Comments

The Road to Recovery

Our latest Subscriber flyer “Supply & Demand” is the first in what will be a series of closer looks into the fundamentals that form the foundation of our markets and ultimately, their recovery. While fear has arguably been the most prevalent market force of late, examining what’s taking place below the surface will afford you the opportunity to be ahead of the curve if not peaking around the next corner.

If you are not a subscriber and would like to see this chart, you may open an example here: Estate of Mind Supply & Demand Flyer

Starting with inventory, we see that the supply of homes for sale grew significantly. Yet, despite all of the “sky is falling” breathless reporting we’ve witnessed, “months supply” has peaked at or below the levels of past cycles. The biggest original  factor here is overbuilding. Having been one (a builder) I speak from experience when I say it takes a long time to go from concept to completion. Most have seen the NIMBY, zoning, planning board, environmental, permitting, financing, labor, construction and finally sales hurdles that can all add time to the process. Accordingly, it can take years from the For Sale sign being planted on the vacant land to the first moving truck pulling up and in the midst of all that, the market will turn and turn it did. Worse, this time around, the usual building cycle was more than twice as long as usual and like trying to stop an oil tanker, if you start the process too late, you don’t want to be the one standing on the dock, wearing the captain’s hat or owning stock in the insurance company. Extending this cyclical supply peak this time are the well publicized foreclosures and new listings that come on the market for all the usual reasons.

Moving forward, we have seen builders pull out the stops to sell their properties. Free flat panels, BMW’s, 3.9% financing, they are a creative bunch and most are also smart enough to stop building more and it’s clear by the numbers that’s what they’ve done. Housing starts fell in January to an annualized pace of 466 thousand. We’ve not seen a number that small in over 45 years. At the peak of the past boom, the pace was 140% higher at appoximately 1.1MM.

Further, if you look at the “Housing Starts as a Percetage of Population” graph, you can see not only the usual cyclicality of this but moreover, the steadily dwindling progression when measured in this manner.

The simple comparison of homes built over time to the number of homes sold evidences the simplest basic foundation of markets and of course, the title for this piece- supply and demand.

As the bottom two graphs clearly show, our population rises at over 3 million per year and each year, those 3 million people form 1 million new households. If builders are now only adding less than half of the new homes needed where will the rest come from? Sure, they’ll be happy to build more as soon as the actual market rather than fundamental demand returns but as we reviewed earlier, that process takes time. This is especially true when some of those tanker captains lost their stripes (and their shirts).

Yes, we have other problems right now. There is little confidence in the market and buyers in many areas are reluctant to step in until prices bottom and they’re certain that they won’t lose their jobs. Still, for those that want to peer over the other side of the dam to gauge not what is but what will be, we see the water rising. Not unlike fish, people are comfortable “swimming in schools” and by nature, will never discover anything that’s not already known by the rest of the crowd. Conventional wisdom is neither. Being the “one” unafraid to go it alone, step out of the pack and get where you want to be before the crowd arrives will always allow you to prosper in the end.

As you may know from our affordability analysis, there has never been a more efficient time to buy. For those that marry that fact with the right instinct to take advantage of it and the longer term point of view that ultimately, fundamentals will trump sentiment, the ultimate recovery will be all that much sweeter.

So whether you take advantage yourself to dig up some gold nuggets or set up shop to sell the shovels, now is a great time to anticipate what’s next and equip yourself accordingly.

March 15, 2009   Posted in: General  No Comments

Housing Appreciation and Rate of Return

The following video is a sample from our Home Economics Chart educational series. These videos are designed to be viewed by your prospects as a learning tool. They are also ideal to share with your referral partners to support and enhance their understanding of the information in the charts and to teach them how to convey that to their customers.

These videos will come packaged in a personalized video player with your photo, logo & contact info and will be easily distributable by email or web link. In brief, it’s an online all the time customer learning resource working hard for you, when you can’t.

If you can see this, then you might need a Flash Player upgrade or you need to install Flash Player if it's missing. Get Flash Player from Adobe.

February 16, 2009  Tags: , , , ,   Posted in: Educational Videos  No Comments

About the Home Economics Chart

This is a short promotional video for our Home Economics Chart. If you’ve not yet seen what it’s all about or wonder how you would put it to work in your business, this is a good place to start.

If you can see this, then you might need a Flash Player upgrade or you need to install Flash Player if it's missing. Get Flash Player from Adobe.

To learn more about these great education and promotional tools, vist estateofmindinc.com

February 14, 2009  Tags: , , ,   Posted in: Promotional Videos  No Comments

Affordability

The latest flyer released to our subscribers is based on something new we’ve been tracking. This is the cost of a monthly payment based on a percentage of per capita income. For each year, we use the historical median sales price less a 20% down payment, the prevailing 30 year fixed rate to calculate a payment, then measure the percentage that payment represents of monthly per capita income.

This is based on principal and interest only as there is too much variance in taxes and insurance from area to area. Still, it’s a conservative analysis as we’re using Per Capita rather than Family Income and regardless of the measure, the most important element is the change from one year to the next. 

For deeper analysis, see the earlier post regarding the affordability video.

You may also view the flyer here: Affordability Flyer

February 11, 2009  Tags: , , , ,   Posted in: General  No Comments


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